3 races to go, and 3 drivers in the reckoning

I feel the title will be won by one among Mark Webber, Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso.

The champions of the last 2 years, Hamilton, who was in Chennai recently thanks to Vodafone, and Button, are only 28 and 31 points behind, but McLaren do not seem to have it in them to finish ahead of the Red Bulls or the Ferrari in the remaining races to be able to make up these points.

So, it is 3 races to go with Webber 14 points ahead of Vettel and Alonso, who are tied on 206.

What do you think?

 

The advantage for Alonso is that he is in the most improved car since the mid-point of the season. Even if he could not keep the pace at Suzuka, he has been the form driver in the best race day car for the last 2 months. He is also not competing with his team mate, unlike Webber and Vettel. This column has maintained that Alonso has this advantage this season since he is clearly the top driver at Ferrari, and when it gets close, it helps to know that your entire team is working towards you being the champion.

Vettel of course has been the most brilliant driver of the last 2 years, but can he get over his brashness and tendency to make mistakes to take the championship? Or will Webber stay ahead and do enough in 3 races to keep the lead?

As for the team championship. Red Bull deservedly have it in the bag I think.

Rain and Rainmasters

Nothing like rain to make a Formula 1 race more interesting – it creates more uncertainties, levels the field to some extent, between the teams, and separates the great drivers or Rainmasters, from the more mortal ones. Some of the great races we have seen over the years have been in the rain, and have been dominated by the Rainmasters - peerless Senna, Schumi the Rainmeister, and in recent times Alonso and Vettel, the new Meister from Germany. We also expect that one of them will be so far ahead of the others that they would win even if they come from behind.

So, why did Alonso and Vettel finish with no points between them at Spa last week, when one would have expected one or both of them to be on the podium? Is it because the drivers themselves believed that they are better than others in the rain, took more chances than they should and in the process made more mistakes than what a race winner should make? Vettel surely believed that he was faster than all others and that Button was holding him back – he could have been more careful and passed him later in the race – anything would have been better than the zero points he finished with. And Alonso, he made so many mistakes and finally ended up beached in the middle of the track. Neither did anything to improve their title chances on a day on which one would have expected the opposite.

In between they drove brilliantly. But Hamilton was brilliant in his own way, and considering that he put himself at the head of the pack, did not have to do anything silly apart from driving brilliantly to win the race. In the process, he looked every part the assured champion that Vettel did not. Vettle does still have a chance I feel – with his talent and the car he is in, he can win 3 or 5 races in a row !

Talking of rain, and talented Germans, Michael Schumacher drove his best race of the year I felt – coming from the back of the grid to 6th before finishing 7th. The Mercedes is surely not a car that can produce a championship but Schumi and Rosberg had their moments in the rain.

Ferrari are back – but have Red Bull and McLaren decided whom to back?

Controversies over team orders aside, Ferrari clearly are back and have a car that is competitive enough not to write off the season. It was a great 1-2 show last week. But for Vettel’s brilliant lap to take the pole on Saturday, Ferrari was the car to beat all weekend. Though Massa drove a brilliant race that he deserved to win, Ferrari clearly have only one No.1 driver as has always been the case with the team. And now that man is Alonso.  This strategy clearly did Alonso’s championship chances no harm, and it looks like Ferrari and Alonso want to go for it. The No.1 status for Alonso could be his biggest advantage afterall this year, all the more so with the new points system.

Look at it this way:

After Hockenheim, there are only 3 teams and 5 drivers who can win this year. Others have purely arithmetic chances.

The teams seem pretty even. While Ferrari has moved forward, McLaren seem to have stagnated.

Red Bull have not been able to carry over Saturday pace to Sunday consistently – the Red Bull cars and their drivers seem better for the 1-lapper on Saturday than the big race on Sunday – hence the big difference between the number of pole positions they have this season versus the number of race wins.

The advantage for Ferrari is that in the other two teams, both their drivers have a chance:

- Hamilton and Button are leading the standings, driving for the same team and are separated by just 14 points

- Behind them are the Red Bulls – Webber and Vettel are tied on 136 points !

- At Ferrari, Alonso is THE MAN and he is 38 points ahead of Massa.

Red Bull and McLaren better decide very soon on whom they want to back for the championship – if not they will be splitting the spoils, squabbling and Alonso will walk away with the title.

 Will Red Bull and McLaren decide whom to back for the title?

Red Bull seem to have realised this and seem to be veering towards the young German, as we ‘heard’ at Silverstone. McLaren will find it much more difficult to choose between their two World champions. And with this decision possibly lies the key to a closely contested championship.

Is it already a 4-horse race sans the Prancing horse?

Is Fernando Alonso a worried, frustrated man? If not, why would the former double world champion make the kind of silly mistake he made at Silverstone last weekend, which probably cost him 10 if not 15 points in the championship race. All he had to do was give the place back to Petrov and try to win it back again in a couple of corners.

Where does this leave Ferrari and Alonso? Are they already out of it? At mid-point, are we already having a 4-horse race between the 2 McLarens and the 2 Red Bulls, separated by less than 1 race (ya, I am slowly getting my head around the new points system) between them? I would not bet against Alonso yet, despite the Ferrari’s lack of pace. But Alonso needs to win a couple of races now, starting at Hockenheim, and dominate the rest of the European leg to be in the running. Hopefully, Spain’s world cup win provides Alonso the inspiration he needs. Massa already seems to have slipped away like the Brazilians did in South Africa.

It promises to be a great season that can go all the way to the wire again. Sebastian Vettel’s youthful propensity to make mistakes is the only reason he is 4th and not on top of the leaderboard. He has the car and the ability to dominate like Schumi did, if only he could avoid the tangles he boldly drives into, but then if only the young knew… But what racing it made for when he and Button came from the back of the grid on Sunday. It was no surprise that the TV coverage was almost exclusively on the four Germans – Vettel, Sutil, Schumi and Hulkenberg – fighting it out for places 6 to 10, for such was the racing for the lower points positions.  Quite a teaser for their home Grand prix in Hockenheim in 10 days.

Its been all Red – Red Bull

Red is the racing colour for all of us Ferrari fans. Much as we hate to talk of the colour Red in our software projects, we spend our Saturdays and Sundays rooting for the Scarlet Red Ferraris, even if we do not travel with the Tiffosi. But the Red that has dominated the season so far is not the Scarlet Red of the Prancing horse, but the Red Bull cars of Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel.

The speed of the Red Bulls is no news, for youthful mistakes apart, Vettel could have won last year. The same tendency to self destruct is what has stopped him from taking a big lead in the season till date – he could have had another 30+ points but for 2 big mistakes. But Mark Webber is a different man, less prone to self-destruction and after 7 races, a little bit ahead of his precocious teammate in the race to be Champion, I would think. What I feel has given the Red Bulls the edge are the new rules which do not allow refuelling, and give a big edge to cars that are great in the ’1-lap’  charge on Saturdays.  With other cars not having the option of carrying less or more fuel in order to neutralise the cars on pole, the Red Bull has been the car to beat every single time.

What of our Ferraris?

They have not been able to match the speed of the Renault and Mercedes engines all season. Unless they have something up their sleeve in terms of straight line speed, even Alonso cannot take them to the title I feel. But in a 19-race season, anything can happen. Afterall we have 12 races to go. And the new points system does favour consistency, which is why Kubica, Massa and Rosberg are in the reckoning without winning a single race.

And Schumi?

We have to wait and see. The fact that he has started beating Rosberg consistently is a good sign but the only one till date. He is improving with each race for sure but we are talking of Michael Schumacher here ….

The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve returns to F1 next week. Who and what will stop the charge of the Red Bulls?